The Clever AI What-If Forecaster is an intelligent planning tool built into your Hello Clever dashboard. This page explains what the Forecaster does, how to run both organic and cashback-driven forecasts, how to interpret the outputs you receive, and best practices for getting the most out of scenario planning before you launch a campaign. The Forecaster uses machine learning trained on your historical sales, seasonal trends, and customer transaction behaviour to project where your revenue is heading, and how much a cashback campaign could move that trajectory.

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Getting started

1

Navigate to Forecaster

From your Hello Clever dashboard, go to Site Overview → Forecaster. You will land on a view showing your sales trend over the last 30 days and a prompt to begin forecasting.
2

Run an organic sales forecast

Click Forecast to project your baseline sales without any cashback incentive. Select a forecast duration:
  • 30 days: best for tactical, near-term campaign planning
  • 60 days: balanced view for medium-term decisions
  • 90 days: strategic planning and quarterly marketing calendars
The forecast result includes:
  • Forecasted sales value (for example, $11,873.02)
  • Percentage change over the previous comparable period
  • Confidence range (the upper and lower bounds of the projection)
  • Forecast reliability score (for example, 85%)
The longer the forecast range, the broader the confidence interval. Use 60–90 day forecasts for strategic planning and 30-day forecasts for tactical campaign decisions.
How the forecast is calculated:Clever AI combines the following data sources to build your baseline projection using a trained time series model with variance bands:
  • Historical sales volume
  • Seasonal and weekday trends
  • Customer transaction behaviour
  • Cashback engagement data (where applicable)
3

Simulate a cashback campaign

Scroll to the Want to boost your sales? card. Configure your scenario:
  • Select a cashback percentage (for example, 10% or 20%)
  • Choose a campaign duration (30, 60, or 90 days)
  • Click Forecast
Clever AI recalculates your projection and overlays the cashback scenario on the organic forecast. You receive:
  • Forecasted sales with cashback applied
  • Revenue uplift over the organic baseline
  • Estimated cashback cost
  • Visual overlays comparing both outcomes
Example output:The forecast graph displays:
  • Solid blue line: historical sales
  • Dotted blue line: forecast without cashback
  • Dotted green line: forecast with cashback
  • Shaded range: confidence interval
4

Test different scenarios

Scroll to Forecast a different scenario and adjust the cashback percentage (5–50%) and campaign duration, then click Forecast again. Clever AI instantly recalculates new forecasted sales, projected uplift, cashback cost, and confidence range for each scenario you test.Run multiple simulations side-by-side to find the cashback rate that delivers the best return for your budget.

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Interpreting forecast outputs

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Forecast reliability score

Each forecast includes a reliability score (for example, 85%). This reflects the model’s confidence based on:
  • Data consistency: how uniform your historical transaction patterns are
  • Pattern strength: how clearly seasonal or weekday trends emerge in your data
  • External volatility: exposure to holidays, economic shifts, or other external factors
A lower reliability score means wider confidence bands. In those cases, treat the forecast as a directional signal rather than a precise target.

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Sales uplift vs. cashback cost

Use the forecast to evaluate return on cashback spend before committing budget. Example ROI calculation:
  • Forecasted uplift: $399,527.09
  • Cashback cost: $82,280.02
  • ROI: 4.85× return on cashback spend
Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees. Accuracy improves as Hello Clever captures more transactional history for your store. Stores that have recently onboarded may see higher variance in early forecasts.

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Use cases

Campaign planning

Simulate before launching to validate ROI and avoid under- or over-investing in cashback.

Budget allocation

Identify which weeks or product categories benefit most from cashback incentives.

Quarterly planning

Use 90-day forecasts to inform your broader marketing calendar and spending cycles.

A/B scenario testing

Run two simulations with different cashback percentages to find the optimal rate before launch.

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Best practices

  • Start with 30-day forecasts to build familiarity with the tool and calibrate your expectations.
  • For broader strategic decisions, run 60–90 day simulations to account for seasonality.
  • Simulate multiple cashback percentages (for example, 5%, 10%, 20%) to locate the sweet spot between uplift and cost.
  • Combine Forecaster outputs with Clever AI Actionable Insights to focus cashback on the customer segments or regions where impact will be greatest.
  • Account for external events (holidays, competitor activity, or economic shifts) when interpreting results, as the model does not automatically factor in events outside your historical data.

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Forecast limitations

Forecasts are statistical estimates based on your store’s historical data. They are not guarantees of future performance. Always apply business judgement alongside forecast outputs when making campaign or budget decisions.
  • High variance may occur in low-volume stores or stores that have recently onboarded to Hello Clever.
  • Accuracy improves over time as more transactional history is captured.
  • The model does not automatically account for sudden external events such as major holidays, economic downturns, or significant competitor actions.